Computers won't replace doctors, traffic analysts or meteorologists anytime
soon, but their real-time analytical capabilities can provide essential
information, and that will help humans employed in these (and many other) fields
make smarter decisions.
That's the big data gospel from IBM, which is testing its powerful cognitive
computer systems – computers modeled on the human brain -- around the world.
Like many industry players, the tech giant sees a confluence of four factors --
social, mobile, analytics and cloud, or "SMAC" -- that will combine with
cognitive systems to have a major impact on 21st-century business, government
and society in general.
In a phone interview with InformationWeek, IBM research fellow
Kerrie Holley provided a high-level overview of Big Blue's take on SMAC, machine
learning and the sensor-driven Internet
of Things, all of which are expected to play starring roles in the new era
IBM calls cognitive computing.
[ Meet IBM's "engagement advisor," a computer that can take your
customer complaints: Watson
Gets Call Center Job. ]
The current era of programmable computing had a good run, but it's coming to
an end, said Holley. "Before that was the tabulating era, where we used
tabulating machines -- pre-transistors, pre-computers," he said. "We see each of
these eras lasting about 40 to 50 years."
IBM officials in recent months have been chatting up their vision of a big
data-driven future. In March, for instance, CEO Ginni Rometty told
business leaders at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations that big
data and predictive analytics would play a major role in how organizations make
key decisions.
And ready or not, enterprise user, the cognitive era is coming soon.
"This new era of computing will require more innovation and invention,"
Holley said. The Internet of Things, for instance, will grow increasingly
crucial to organizations. "We're seeing more devices connected to the Internet,"
he said. "There's a lot of machine-to-machine interaction that's made possible
because we're beginning to exploit the Web as a programmable, open platform."
IBM, not surprisingly, has a major stake in this vision of the future. Its
cognitive technologies, most notably the Watson computer system
that answers questions posed in natural language, are built for big data. In
healthcare, for instance, Watson's evidence-based learning, hypothesis
generation and natural-language skills could help medical professionals make key
decisions in patient diagnosis and treatment.
Watson already has begun performing this role. In March, IBM and Memorial
Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) in New York City announced plans to
develop a cognitive system that combines Watson's computational power and
natural language capabilities with MSKCC's extensive medical data from its
lengthy history of treating cancer patients. The objective is to give
oncologists a quick way to access diagnostic and treatment options based on
updated research. Ideally, Watson will help doctors choose the best care for an
individual patient.
"This technology will in no way replace doctors. It'll be an aid to doctors,
and it will (enable) them to cut down on error rates," said Holley.
Weather forecasting can benefit from big data analytics too, Holley said. For
instance, IBM's Deep Thunder, a research project that creates precise, local
weather forecasts, can predict severe storms in a specific area up to three days
before the event. This early-warning system gives local authorities and
residents enough time to make preparations.
"Deep Thunder is not weather reporting that you'd see on TV. It focuses more
on the operational problems that weather presents to cities or businesses," said
Holley. Rio de Janeiro is implementing Deep Thunder to prepare for weather
events and limit their impact. Brazil's second largest city hopes to avoid
catastrophes like a 2010 coastal storm that left more than 200 people dead and
15,000 homeless.
Deep Thunder "is useful to be able to predict that within a certain window of
time -- let's say a three-hour window -- that wind velocity will cause a flood
in a particular area," Holley said.
The system also could help Rio city officials incorporate weather predictions
into their plans for the 2014 World Cup, which Brazil will host.
By: Jeff Bertolucci
Source: http://www.informationweek.com/big-data/news/big-data-analytics/ibms-vision-for-cognitive-computing-era/240155630
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